India is on track to import a record volume of crude oil from Russia in June, with Russian supplies expected to account for more than 50% of the country's monthly crude imports—around 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd)—highlighting the growing importance of discounted Russian oil to India's energy security.
The surge comes as Ukraine's continued drone attacks on Russian refineries have disrupted Moscow's domestic refining capacity, forcing Russia to export larger volumes of crude instead of processing it at home.
According to shipping data, eight tankers carrying Russian crude are currently docked at or approaching Indian ports, including Vadinar on the west coast and Visakhapatnam on the east.
"I've never seen so many tankers carrying Russian crude at Indian ports as I'm seeing right now," Anas Alhajji, Chief Economist at NGP Energy Capital Management told Telegraph India.
Russian Oil Dominates India's Imports
Since Western sanctions were imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has increasingly redirected its crude exports to Asian markets. India, which sourced less than 1% of its crude from Russia before the war, has since become one of Moscow's largest energy customers.
The availability of discounted Russian crude has helped Indian refiners reduce import costs despite volatile global oil markets.
Analysts expect the buying spree to continue in the coming months, providing India with a comfortable supply cushion even if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist.
Ukraine Strikes Create More Export Supply
Market analysts say one of the key drivers behind the surge is the continued disruption of Russian refineries caused by Ukrainian drone attacks.
"Ukrainian attacks continue to constrain Russian refining," said Sumit Ritolia, Senior Analyst at data and analytics firm Kpler told Telegraph India.
With domestic refining capacity affected, Russia has been compelled to export more unprocessed crude, increasing supplies available to buyers like India.
At the same time, weaker demand from China has further redirected Russian cargoes toward India. Chinese crude imports have reportedly declined from around 15 million bpd to nearly 10 million bpd in recent weeks.
"With Chinese buying still subdued, a larger share of these Russian barrels has been redirected to India," Ritolia added.
Indian refiners are reportedly purchasing Russian crude at discounts ranging between $2 and $5 per barrel. Industry sources say refiners have already secured supplies for all of July and the first half of August, with current purchases intended for deliveries beyond that period.
Long-Term Energy Security Remains a Concern
Despite strong near-term supplies, analysts caution that India's broader energy security remains vulnerable due to its heavy dependence on imported crude.
An Ernst & Young study found that India's strategic petroleum reserves cover only 4.9 days of crude oil consumption, among the lowest levels for major economies.
By comparison, China's reserves cover 92.2 days, Japan's 77 days, and South Korea's approximately 31 days of consumption.
"India's strategic oil inventories cover 4.9 days of consumption, significantly lower than other major economies," the report said.
It warned that the country's limited emergency reserves reduce its ability to withstand prolonged supply disruptions or sudden spikes in global oil prices.
"This limited buffer lowers India's energy resilience, reducing the country's ability to manage prolonged supply disruptions or sharp global price movements," the report added.
Import Dependence Continues to Rise
India's oil demand has more than doubled over the past two decades—from around 2.5 million bpd in 2000 to between 5.4 million and 5.6 million bpd today. During the same period, import dependence has increased from roughly 70% to nearly 90% as domestic production has steadily declined.
Although India exports a portion of refined petroleum products after processing imported crude, its reliance on overseas oil remains substantial.
For now, abundant discounted Russian crude is helping shield India from global market volatility. However, experts say the country's long-term exposure to international supply shocks remains significant, making reliable imports—and particularly sustained Russian exports—critical to India's energy security.
Ironically, analysts note that Ukraine's repeated attacks on Russian refineries have indirectly benefited India by increasing the volume of Russian crude available for export, even as parts of Russia grapple with shortages of petrol and diesel due to reduced domestic refining.
